Authors

• Somayeh Ghojavand ^{1 ¶}
• Gholamali Tabarsa ^{2 ¶}
• Ali Rezaeian ^{2 ¶}

¹ PhD Systems Management, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

² Professor, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Purpose: Today, one of the factors that is considered in determining the level of development of a country's economy is the level of information and communication technology in that country. Information and communication technology plays a significant role in reducing industrial problems and increasing productivity and employment. As a developing country, the ICT industry in Iran is a nascent industry that faces many challenges. Currently, one of the main challenges of this industry is human resources. The ICT industry needs specialized human resources for growth and development, and the labor market of this industry is facing challenges such as the lack of specialized human resources, the migration of specialized personnel, and at the same time, the existence of a surplus of educated personnel. In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies.
Design/ methodology/ approach: The research method is descriptive-analytical-exploratory, and the type is applied research. The method used is a combined method that includes two qualitative and quantitative parts. Mixed approaches are a type of research method in which two competing quantitative and qualitative approaches are placed next to each other. In other words, mixed research methods is a type of research method in which a researcher (or a team of researchers) combines the elements of quantitative and qualitative approaches with the aim of revealing the obstacles in research and a deep understanding of phenomena. In the current research, interviews and scenarios were used to identify the problem and provide practical solutions to improve the problem. Scenarios, as one of the future research methods, are used as a powerful tool to make decisions against uncertainties by different Actors. The purpose of scenario planning is to identify important future directions more quickly. Scenario planning also leads to identifying future issues and preparing managers' minds to face them. Scenario planning seeks to develop consistent stories about the future.
Research Findings: In this article, we examined the future state of the ICT labor market by identifying possible future policies. Seventeen interviews were conducted with ICT industry experts. Uncertainties were identified through interviews and were prioritized by using the AHP method. At the end, scenarios were described, and policies were suggested to improve each situation. The important finding of this research is the insight obtained from the scenarios. According to the uncertainties, 6 possible scenarios were identified. These scenarios show possible future spaces. In fact, in this article, we have tried to draw a time path towards the future by drawing future scenarios so that a better understanding of the system is created, and by identifying future alternative environments, it is possible to make optimal decisions in this space.
Limitations & Consequences: The time limitation and issues related to the collection of information and data, required for the research are among the most important limitations of the current research.
Practical Consequences: The problem of mismatch in the labor market is influenced by various factors such as social orientations, political and economic orientations, industry conditions and job characteristics, and the existence of different actors with different mental models, all of which make it a complicated problem. In this research, an attempt was made to create a deep insight and understanding of the dynamics of supply and demand of human resources in the information technology industry and provide policies to get out of the eddies hidden in it.
Innovation or value of the Article: In terms of subject dealing with the problem of the mismatch of the human labor market in the ICT industry and from the methodological point of view, the using scenario planning as a new method to study complex and dynamic phenomena are the innovations of the present article.
Paper Type: Research Paper
 

Keywords

• ICT Industry
• Educational Mismatch
• Scenario Planning