چشم انداز مدیریت دولتی

اعتبارسنجی مدل تدوین شده رصدخانه صنایع پتروشیمی در سطح کلان (مورد مطالعه: شرکت صنایع پتروشیمی خلیج فارس)

نوع مقاله : پژوهشی (با رویکردهای آمیخته)

نویسندگان

1 گروه مدیریت، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد، تهران، ایران.

2 گروه مدیریت، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف: مدیران همواره در جست­وجوی این بوده­اند که بتوانند آینده شرکت را پیش‌بینی کنند تا شاید از این مجرا گامی مؤثر در ساختن و یا تغییر آینده بردارند. این موضوع سبب شده است که اندیشمندان و صاحب­نظران در حوزه‌های مختلف در جست­وجوی راهکارهایی برای غلبه بر پدیده‌ رو به رشد عدم­اطمینان و توجه ویژه به آینده‌پژوهی، آینده‌نگاری و مطالعات آینده باشند. هدف پژوهش حاضر، افزایش توانمدی شرکت‌ها به­منظور پیش‌بینی آینده صنعت پتروشیمی و اعتبارسنجی ابعاد مختلف مدل رصدخانه تدوین­شده در سطح کلان است.
روش­شناسی: این پژوهش از نوع آمیخته است که در بخش کیفی با مدیران دارای تجربه بیش از 10 سال در صنعت پتروشیمی مصاحبه شد و مصلحبه­ها تا رسیدن به اشباع نظری که 20 مصاحبه را دربرگرفت، ادامه یافت. گزاره­های پژوهش به کمک روش داده­بنیاد با رویکرد چارمز استخراج و توسط نرم­افزار MAXQDA تحلیل شد. جامعه آماری بخش کمّی، 462 نفر از مدیران شرکت صنایع پتروشیمی خلیج فارس را شامل می­شود که تعداد نمونه به کمک فرمول کوکران در سطح خطای 10 درصد 80 نفر مشخص شد. در بخش کمّی، پرسشنامه پژوهشگر­ساخته در میان 90 نفر از مدیران شرکت‌های زیرمجموعه در سطوح مختلف توزیع و درنهایت 82 پرسشنامه برای تحلیل مناسب تشخیص داده شد. به­منظور بررسی داده­های بخش کمّی از روش تحلیل عاملی به کمک نرم­افزار­های SPSS و WarpPLS استفاده شد.
یافته­ها و نتایج پژوهش: مدل رصدخانه صنایع پتروشیمی پژوهش در قالب 7 مفهوم اصلی، 21 مفهوم محوری و 127 گزاره ارائه شد. اعتبار مدل تدوین­شده مورد­سنجش قرار گرفت که از این نظر ابعاد و مؤلفه­های مدل رصدخانه مورد­تأیید است. ابعاد استخراج­شده و ضریب اهمیت هر یک از آن­ها شامل مسائل سیاسی (791/0)، مسائل اقتصادی (952/0)، مسائل زیست‌محیطی (596/0)، مسائل اجتماعی (402/0)، مسائل فناوری (720/0)، مسائل قانونی(842/0) و مسائل بین‌المللی (682/0) مشخص شد. بر این اساس رصد ابعاد و مؤلفه‌های شناسایی­شده مرتبط، به­عنوان داده و اطلاعات ورودی، به کسب و انتشار دانش و خُرد بیشتر در این حوزه منجر می­شود و مدیران شرکت را در تصمیم‌گیری بهتر و آینده‌نگری یاری می­کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Validation of Petrochemical Company Observatory Model in Large–Level (Case Study: Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Co.)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Abdali 1
  • Gholamreza Goodarzi 2
  • Tahmours Sohrabi 2

1 Department of Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran - Imam Sadiq University

چکیده [English]

Purpose: Managers have always sought to predict the future of the company so that they may take an effective step in building or changing the future. This has led scholars in various fields to look for solutions to overcome the growing uncertainty phenomenon, with a particular focus on foresight and future studies. The purpose of the research is to increase the ability of companies to predict the future of the petrochemical industry and validation of different dimensions of the macro-level observatory model.
Methodology:  This research is of mixed method, Interviewed in a qualitative section of managers with more than ten years in petrochemical industry and continued until the theoretical saturation, that included 20 interviews. The statements extracted from the interviews were extracted using the Charmaz approach and analyzed by MAXQDA software. The statistical population comprises 462 managers of the Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industries Company. The number of samples was determined by the Cochran formula at the error rate of 1%, 80 individuals. In the quantitative part, a researcher-made questionnaire was distributed among 90 managers of different companies in different levels, finally, 82 questionnaires were analyzed for analysis. Factor analysis was performed using SPSS and WarpPLS software for quantitative data analysis.
Findings and Results: The Petrochemical Industry Observatory model was presented in the form of 7 main concepts, 21 axial concepts and 127 propositions. The validity of the developed model was measured in this respect the dimensions of the observatory model were confirmed. Model dimensions and significance coefficient for each of the dimensions of the macro level of the petrochemical industry include: Political (0.791), economic (0.952), environmental (0.596), social (0.402), technological (0.720), legal (0.842), and international (0.682). The identified dimensions of the macro level of the petrochemical industry as observatory data will lead to more knowledge and wisdom in order to make better decision makers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Observatory
  • Futures Studies
  • Petrochemical industries
  • Validation
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چشم انداز مدیریت دولتی
دوره 11، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 42
تیر 1399
صفحه 177-204